Saturday, December 16, 2006

Ability to infer in the stock market (#287, Topic M)

On the way to the Library of Congress this morning, the PBS beamed a short message: "Westinghouse will build 4 nuclear power plants in China." Based on my recent find (that one's ability to infer improves as one's store of knowledge is broadened (#284, 12/14/06)), I thought this brief message gives me an excellent opportunity to test my ability to make inferences. Apparently, this was the result of the US-China Economic Summit concluded the day before (#286, 12/15/06). What inferences can I make? (1) It would add pressure on the demand/supply situation in nuclear material. [My own assessment: This is a simplistic answer, too general to be meaningful.] (2) By how much? No idea. [Were I knowledgeable about the size of a typical nuclear plant, I probably can answer that question.] (3) When would these new plants be built and new demand for nuclear fuel be felt? Again, no idea. [This makes strike 3; were this baseball, I would be struck out.] (4) How would this affect the demand for fossil fuel? No idea. [However, an energy specialist should have this down pat.] (5) Which companies would benefit? Clearly, one would be Westinghouse. However, I vaguely recall that the company had been sold to a foreign company a year or so ago, but I do not recall this new company's name. (6) Which companies constitute investment opportunities? Other than a company that produces nuclear material in which I have a few shares, it is another blank. So, with this little experiment, I must conclude that I am a complete failure. One of the persons who can make quick inferences in stock market is undoubtedly Jim Cramer, the host of the Mad Money program over CNBC. He can recall details about thousands of stocks almost instantaneously -- not only how a stock closed a couple of hours ago and whether it was a gain or loss, but also its price-earnings ratio, its earnings-growth figure, its main product lines and their market share, its cash and debt status, names of its CEO, its main competitors and how they compare, etc. Still, I must not give up so easily. Let me improve my knowledge base and test myself again.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are better at inferring than 99 percent of us!!! Thanks for the article.

12/20/2006 12:09 AM  

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