Ability to make quick inferences (#284, Topic P)

The ability to make quick inferences from very little factual matters (clues) is what Kriegspiel is about -- without seeing any of the opponent's pieces, a player is suppose to postulate, mainly by inference, (1) where the king is, (2) whether the king is sufficiently guarded, and thus (3) whether the player may mount an attack to checkmate the opponent's king. Clearly, one's ability to infer improves with more play; one also learns by observing how people in other endeavors make inferences -- for me, I try to learn from bridge, mah-jong, and the stock market. Last night, I heard, very briefly, a commentator stating that a senator had undergone surgery. In the next utterance, he said "That means the Vice President casts the tie-breaking vote." His first announcement is a statement of fact, which I understood; his next utterance is an inference, which I failed to grasp. This morning, over PBS, the announcer, after broadcasting this news, was kind enough to add some background information; now I think I understand. The reasoning process runs something like this. (1) The senator undergoing surgery is a Democrat. (2) In the new senate that begins in January 2007, Democrats hold a 51:49 advantage. (3) If the senator in question is incapacitated and resigns, Democrats' advantage is reduced to 50:49. (4) The vacancy created by the resignation is to be filled by the governor from the state which elected the senator. (5) The senator who resigned, in this instance, is from a state whose governor is a Republican. (6) That Republican governor will, undoubtedly, fill the vacancy with a Republican. (7) After filling the vacancy, the senate line-up becomes 50:50, a tie. (8) In the senate, in case of a tie, the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote. (9) The vice president is a Republican. (10) The vice president's tie-breaking vote will, undoubtedly, vote with his fellow Republicans. (11) Thus, in effect, Republicans regain the control of the senate. Q.E.D. Upon further reflection, I realize that one's ability to make quick inference improves as one's store of knowledge is broadened. What constitutes as a lack of information to one may be a routine matter to another. Were I as sufficiently knowledgeable as the announcer whom I heard, I might be able to make a quick inference as well. This is an important find (for me); let's see whether I can apply this to Kriegspiel and to the three allied fields of bridge, mah-jong, and the stock market.