Carnegie Forum: Rogue States in 19th and 21st centuries (#236, Topic F)

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace offered a forum on "Deterring America: Rogue States and the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction" this morning, presented by a man (BA Harvard, PhD Oxford, and LLB Yale) who has just published a book on this subject. The book approaches the subject from three aspects: theoretical (deterrent theory), historical (asymmetrical contests in ancient Greece), and prescriptive (export control of nuclear material, counter force, interdiction). The more lectures of this type I attended, the more I see the resemblance to world situation 165 years ago. Thus, during the Q&A period, I said the following: "US has said that whichever country strikes US, that country will be completely demolished. Thus, it is unlikely that North Korea would deliver the first strike. Your historical research covers ancient Greece, which is inadequate -- Korea is in Asia; it would be more relevant to cite historical references with an Asian context. I am currently doing research on the Opium War, from a Chinese point of view. In the 1830~40, China had 29% of the world's wealth while Britain had less than 1%. Indeed, at that time, Britain was a rogue state -- using free trade of opium as the excuse to provoke China into war. China lost because she did not have the most modern weaponry at the time. Korea was colonized by Japan for the same reason. So, North Korea undertook nuclear tests as a deterrent -- as a defensive measure against imperialistic aggression. My question: Why should US fear?" The central point of the presenter's answer, as far as I could gather, was that his research is done "from the US's point of view." Later, another listener asked: "Why does US need thousands of nuclear weapons?" (A couple of days ago, I read that US is now replacing/updating 2,400 of its nuclear arsenal.) To which the presenter said: "The question by the gentleman before you (nodding in my direction) also implied as much. I really do not have an answer." The forum was advertised for last 2 hours, but it lasted barely 60 minutes.