Sunday, September 17, 2006

"It is for China's own good" (#217, Topic B)

US's new treasury secretary, said to be an old China hand in his previous Wall Street role, has embarked on his first mission to China, trying to persuade her to revalue her currency, the RMB. Before going there, he made a stopover in Singapore to give talks at high-level multinational meetings. On Friday, before an ASEAN ministers' meeting, he talked, wishfully, that a RMB revaluation "is for China's own good." What a magnanimous gesture! A VIP from USA is willing to travel 10,000+ miles just to deliver a "good for you" advice, face-to-face, to -- how shall I phrase it? -- a friend? a competitor? As I am doing research on the Opium Wars, this statement reminds me of another "it is good for you" statement, uttered by a similarly high-ranking British government official a century and half ago. In 1839, Lord Palmerston, British Foreign Secretary, urged Sir Henry Pottinger, Superintendent of [Opium] Trade [in China], to "strongly impress upon the Chinese plenipotentiaries how much it would be to the interest of that Government to legalize the [opium] trade" (Hanes, Opium Wars, 2002, p 149) In the 1980s, US also gave a similar advice to Japan -- revalue the yen, "it is good for you". The latter, being the former's best ally in Asia, readily complied. The result was to put Japan in 16 years of recession -- it just barely came out of it. Yesterday, before a joint WB/IMF meeting, the new treasury secretary said that he wanted China "to succeed." Another magnanimous gesture, no doubt. To coincide with this WB/IMF meeting, the current issue of the Economist (9/16/06) has a 19-page special report on the world economy. A chart therein shows that, by 2040, China will replace US as the world's largest economy. Is this what the treasury secretary has in mind? -- wishing another country to succeed so that USA could take the runner-up spot? Perish the thought.

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